Epub Ý The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable 366 pages Download

Mobi The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Epub Ý The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable 366 pages Download Î ❰Reading❯ ➷ The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Eyltransferservices.co.uk A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristicsE know about what we don’t know He offers surprisingly Black Swan The Impact of PDFEPUBsimple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from themElegant startling Black Swan The Impact of PDFEPUBand universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer with wit irreverence and unusual stories to tell He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swanThe book also contains a page glossary pages of notes and a page bibliography in addition to an inde This review will be comprised of two parts a review of the ideas presented and a review of the way in which it is writtenA The ideasThere is no uestion here Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar His take on epistomology and the scientific method breathe fresh air into the subject and gloss it with some 21st century contextIt would be difficult for me to overstate the importance of the black swan problem in modern life and the degree to which we are as societies unaware of its impact However anybody with half a background in statistics chaos theory or the philosophy of science will have encountered most of the concepts in this book before and will have cogitated at length over them Still Taleb's text acts both as a refresher course and a collection of intelligent new perspectives on the subject which make for a decent think a thon For that reason somebody with an interest should give this book a goB The executionThis book could have been a third of its length Taleb comes across as insufferable and fustian His one page per topic writing style flits between ideas without exploring or explaining them properly The narrative is disjoint and underdeveloped Only at the end of the book does he even begin to make some positive suggestions for replacing the intellectual institutions he rightly criticises Anybody who has read Richard Dawkins will be familiar with the arrogance with which Taleb states his claims and dismisses the thinking of others It is almost enough to make one toss the book awaySo I gave this book two stars I valued the content but it is most definitely not groundbreaking and it most definitely is not well written'Fooled by randomness' is slightly better

Doc ↠ The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable ☆ Nassim Nicholas Taleb

A black swan is a highly Swan The PDF #201 improbable event with three principal characteristics It is unpredictable it carries a massive impact and after the fact we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and predictable than it was The astonishing success of Google was a black swan so was For Nassim Nicholas Taleb black swans underlie almost everything about our world from the rise of religions to events in The Black PDFEPUBour own personal livesWhy do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur Part of the answer according to Taleb is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they sh This is a great book And to take a page from Taleb anyone who doesn't think so is wrongNo no there are a number of problems with the book A bit bloated a bit repetitive And NNT does make the misstep every once and a while To take a very small instance Taleb bases a short section of the book upon the idea that to be hardened by the Gulag means to become harder or stronger rather than its true meaning of someone who has become inured to certain difficulties not necessarily stronger because of itHowever this along with other problems are mere uibbles relative to the strengths of this book and I think it's worth noting that many of the negative reviews on this site base their hostile reactions to Taleb on just such insignificant trifles The Black Swan deals with the fascinating topic of the nature uncertainty and approaches it from a variety of intellectual angles mainly the psychological blocks that we are both born with and have created for ourselves that prevent our understanding of the improbable the narrative fallacy and the problem of induction the tenuous relationship of cause and effect; our reliance on flawed mathematical models; the expect problem Each one of these discussions reinforces his main argument but captivate independently as they are insights to the way we process informationTaleb also references numerous thinkers that are not as well known in the popular consciousness and provides wonderful anecdotes and examples from their life and work that illustrate his points and entertain the readerMany other reviewers comment on the Taleb's uniue style arrogant and aggressive Just because he's arrogant however doesn't mean he's wrong this man has spent most of his life dedicated to this subject and it shows And his antagonistic style seems appropriate it's hard to go against the establishment even if your goal is truth; people aren't going to believe you He attacks the Nobel Prize in Economics because according to him the financial models created by the prizewinners that that Swedish committee has rewarded have done a great deal of harm to people's understanding of the true economic risks involved Preposterous Sacrilege These are the exclamations of narrow minded thinkers who have yet to examine the evidence thoroughlyI personally found Taleb's style to be amusing and engaging It reflects a true passion and dedication to the beliefs he expounds in the book beliefs that are worth some attention If we live in a time of uncertainty it's a good thing to understand what that really means

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ☆ The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable Kindle

The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly ImprobableOuld be focused on generalities We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know We are therefore unable to truly estimate opportunities too vulnerable to the Black Swan The PDFEPUB #195 impulse to simplify narrate and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible”For years Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know than we actually do We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconseuential while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world Now in this revelatory book Taleb explains everything w This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it Taleb's jeremiad is directed against well everyone who is not as enlightened as he is I trudged through this book because well everyone is reading it and enlightened people should know how to comment on it There I did it Now I can look down on all those people out there who aren't enlightened like Taleb And now meTaleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self importance enough to filter his verbage to get his good ideas A central idea is that we assume everything in the world is Gaussian and then we base all our decisions about life on our Gaussian models But the significant life changing society changing events are outside the Gaussian Things like 9 11 They belong to Extremestan not Mediocristan The ideas are interesting Many are uite compelling But it really seems Taleb's main point is everyone else is an idiot It seems the details why are secondary to that pointI did find uite useful a good line of thought regarding the importance of narrative in grasping truth We are so drawn to narrative that all retained true facts must fit into our constructed narrative Other data are ignored or made to fit We need to be on the watch for data that disproves rather than confirms our story And perhaps we ought to learn better how to understand and speak in story Mmm God himself in the person of Jesus communicated truth in parables narratives No one else seems to have caught on Except Taleb of course